It is better to be roughly right than exactly wrong
/In this unprecedented time of the COVID-19 Pandemic; leaders struggle with decision-making, a lack of information/data, and a lack of urgency.
Dr. Michael Ryan, Executive Director, WHO Health Emergencies Programme (@DrMikeRyan) offers advice for leaders and decision-makers facing the crisis, based on lessons learned from Ebola. His advise has broader implications beyond the COVID-19 Pandemic to executive decision-making in general.
“Be fast, have no regrets, you must be the first mover.”
“If you need to be right before you move, you will never win.”
“Perfection is the enemy of the good.” (in this context)
“Speed trumps perfection.”
“The greatest error is not to move; to be paralyzed by the fear of failure.”
General Colin Powell called this the “40-70 Rule” of decision-making. Making a decision with less than 40% of the information is high risk, yet waiting until you have more than 70% of the information is potentially more risky given that one factor in any decision is TIME.
It is clear, “time” is moving quickly in this Pandemic and leaders have to make decisions before they have the data to know if they are making the right decisions. Singapore and Korea acted quickly with focus and determination, they were not afraid of failure, or as Dr. Ryan would say…
“Everyone is afraid of making a mistake.”
“Everyone is afraid of the consequences of error.”
“The greatest error is not to move.”
Waiting to be “exactly right” could be “exactly wrong” at the end of the day, because it took you too long to arrive at the decision. At some point in the future, historians will look back on governmental executive decision-making in the Pandemic and I suspect that the people that acted fastest will have saved more lives - those will have been the people that acted without fear of failure (“The greatest error is not to move”). Korea and Singapore moved quickly to test and contain, but we will have to see how this all ends - which it will - before making the final assessment.
Wayne Gretzky, the great Canadian Hockey player said, “Skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been.” Seems easy, but in order to do this you must make quick decisions before you have all the information and be able to anticipate the future using historical data. But most of all, you need to be able to accept failure, “The greatest error is not to move.”